Your CAC Is $34. Your First Purchase Loses $4.
847 new customers last month. Blended CAC of $34. AOV of $62. The founder feels good about growth — until you subtract COGS, fulfillment, returns, and ad spend from the first order.
3 tools open. Zero visibility into unit economics.
Meta shows 2.8× ROAS. Shopify shows $62 AOV. The spreadsheet says LTV:CAC is 3.5×. Each number is technically correct — and collectively misleading. Nobody knows if growth is profitable.
CAC and ROAS are platform-reported. Neither accounts for COGS, fulfillment, returns, or what the customer buys next. A $34 CPP on Meta looks efficient until you see the first-order contribution margin is negative $3.96.
A blended LTV average treats every customer the same. A $34 Meta CPP customer and a $6 organic customer get averaged into one number. The spreadsheet says 3.5× LTV:CAC. The channel-level truth is Meta at 1.8× and Organic at 14× — with 64% of ad budget on Meta.
8.2 months
average payback period — never measured until now
−$4
contribution margin on every new customer's first order
0
channels with verified 90-day LTV tracking
Every cost. Every channel. One unit economics model.
We connect Shopify orders, ad spend, email revenue, and COGS into a cohort LTV model with contribution margin waterfalls and payback curves — updated automatically, not rebuilt in Excel every quarter.
Unit Economics Model
Unit Economics Dashboard
LTV · CAC · Payback · CM
One dashboard. Every dollar accounted for.
LTV curves by channel, contribution margin waterfalls, and payback periods — all from a single model that connects Shopify revenue, ad spend, COGS, and repeat purchase behavior. No more guessing whether growth is profitable.
90-Day LTV
$89
Shopify + attribution
Blended CAC
$34
Meta + Google + Influencer
LTV:CAC Ratio
2.6×
90-day window
Payback Period
8.2 mo
Cohort model
First-Purchase CM
−$4
Waterfall model
90-Day CM / Customer
+$31
Repeat purchase model
LTV Curves by Acquisition Channel
180-day windowKey insight: Google and Organic LTV at 180 days is 3.2× higher than Meta — yet Meta receives 64% of the ad budget. The curves diverge sharply after day 60, when repeat purchase behavior kicks in.
Cumulative Contribution Margin — Payback by Cohort
Months since first purchase · zero line = break-even
Key insight: Q4 2023 cohort reaches payback at 6.1 months. The Q1 2024 promo cohort is still negative at month 10 — discount-driven acquisition looks cheap on CPP but destroys payback curves.
First-Order Margin Waterfall
AOV $62 · blended ad spend allocated per customer
Key insight: Gross margin on the first order is $30.04 — but $34 in allocated ad spend pushes contribution to −$3.96. Profitability depends entirely on repeat purchases within 90 days.
CAC vs. 90-Day LTV by Channel
Key insight: Reallocating $15K/month from Meta to Google is the single highest-ROI budget change available. Organic at 14× LTV:CAC proves the brand converts — the paid mix just doesn’t reflect it.
Ad Spend Mix vs. LTV-Weighted Mix
Paid channels · $28.4K/mo total spendActual budget allocation compared to optimal split weighted by 90-day LTV:CAC
Meta
Google Ads
Influencer
Key insight: Meta receives 2.3× its LTV-weighted share of budget. Shifting spend to match the optimal mix adds an estimated $47K in 90-day contribution margin — without increasing total ad spend.
Ready to know if your growth is actually profitable?
We build the LTV model, the contribution margin waterfall, and the channel-level payback curves — on your real Shopify and ad data, in 4 weeks.